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‘Fort McMurray is a wasteland’: Neil Young slams oil patch, Keystone plans

Video: Neil Young says Fort McMurray looks like ‘Hiroshima’

Paul Koring and Kelly Cryderman

WASHINGTON/CALGARY — The Globe and Mail

Sep. 10 2013

Canadian rocker Neil Young has waded into the bitter debate over Alberta’s vast oil sands and the controversial Keystone XL pipeline planned to funnel one million barrels a day of Canadian crude to huge refineries in Texas and Louisiana.

Mr. Young said in a news conference on Monday that oil sands extraction was killing native peoples, igniting a new firestorm in the ongoing battle between proponents who want the massive reserves extracted and an array of opponents who argue that burning the carbon-heavy crude will seriously exacerbate global warming that threatens the planet.

Neil Young arrives for the film "Neil Young Journeys" at the Toronto International Film Festival in Toronto on Sept. 12, 2011.(Nathan Denette/THE CANADIAN PRESS) — Neil Young arrives for the film “Neil Young Journeys” at the Toronto International Film Festival in Toronto on Sept. 12, 2011.
(Nathan Denette/THE CANADIAN PRESS)

“The fact is, Fort McMurray looks like Hiroshima,” Mr. Young said in Washington. “Fort McMurray is a wasteland. The Indians up there and the native peoples are dying.”

Keystone opponents were quick to cheer Mr. Young’s blunt intervention.

Sierra Club spokesman Eddie Scher said: “Neil Young has been expressing and exposing hard truths his whole career,” adding: “Looks like he’s at it again.”

Natural Resources Minister Joe Oliver – who was in Washington himself on the same day for a meeting with U.S. Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz, took a different view.

“I am a big fan of Neil Young’s music,” Mr. Oliver told the Globe. “But on this matter we disagree because Keystone XL will displace heavy oil from Venezuela which has the same or higher greenhouse gas emissions, with a stable and secure source of Canadian oil.”

The singer is among a growing number of well-known activists speaking out against Keystone XL “Neil Young is speaking for all of us fighting to stop the Keystone XL,” said Jane Kleeb, Executive Director of Bold Nebraska, a coalition of landowners and others opposed to the $5.3-billion Keystone XL pipeline. “When you see the pollution already caused by the reckless expansion of tar sands, you only have one choice and that is to act.”

Mr. Young, one of Canada’s best-known singer-songwriters since the 1960s, told a conference in Washington Monday that he recently travelled to Alberta, where “much of the oil comes from, much of the oil that we’re using here, which they call ethical oil because it’s not from Saudi Arabia or some country that may be at war with us.”

As for Keystone, Mr. Young lampooned claims that it would create lots of jobs.

“Yeah it’s going to put a lot of people to work, I’ve heard that, and I’ve seen a lot of people that would dig a hole that’s so deep that they couldn’t get out of it, and that’s a job too, and I think that’s the jobs that we are talking about there with the Keystone pipeline,” he said.

He spoke at the U.S. National Farmers Union conference in Washington, intended to support alternative fuels, such as ethanol, which he did at length, slamming Big Oil and talking about his own LincVolt, an old Continental that runs on ethanol and electricity.

Young said he drove the 1959 Lincoln, which runs on ethanol and electricity, to Fort McMurray while traversing the continent from his California home to Washington over the last two and half weeks.

At the same time, Canada’s Natural Resources Minister Joe Oliver was making the latest in a long series of lobbying visits by ministers and premiers intended to sway President Barack Obama to approve the long-delayed pipeline.

Ms. Kleeb wasn’t impressed. “Prime Minister Harper can write all the memos he wants, Joe Oliver can say anything but the reality is people are dying and the alliance between cowboys and Indians is stronger than any K Street lobbyists Canada hires.”

All Risk, No Rewards, another group opposed to Keystone XL also echoed Mr. Young’s comments.

“Canada’s First Nations know all too well the risks of Keystone XL and the risks of expanding the tar sands,” said Rachel Wolf, a spokeswoman for the group. Ranchers in Nebraska and First Nations peoples in Canada have more in common than one might think: they’re ‘Ordinary People’ who share a common goal to protect their land and protect their water, and they both know that these tar sands expansion projects are all risk and no reward.”

Mr. Young described his recent visit graphically. “The fuel’s all over – the fumes everywhere – you can smell it when you get to town. The closest place to Fort McMurray that is doing the tar sands work is 25 or 30 miles out of town and you can taste it when you get to Fort McMurray. People are sick. People are dying of cancer because of this. All the First Nations people up there are threatened by this.”

Mr. Young’s comments don’t sit well with Fort McMurray’s mayor, who called them “blatantly false.”

Melissa Blake, mayor of the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo, which includes Fort McMurray, said she has no problem with people having environmental interests at heart.

But she said Fort McMurray is totally different from Mr. Young’s characterization. With his power in the music industry, she’s disappointed “there wasn’t more rationality to it.”

“When people say it’s a wasteland, it really and truly isn’t,” Ms. Blake said. “When it comes to the community of Fort McMurray, you’re overwhelmed frankly by the beauty of it. You’ve got an incredible boreal environment that’s all around you. You proceed further north into the oil sands and inevitably, there’s mining operations that will draw your attention because they take up large chunks of land.”

The mayor said she always invites outsiders to the region to see the landscape, and to see oil sands companies’ reclamation efforts.

Danielle Droitsch, director of the National Resources Defense Council, said “Seeing tar sands development up close is shocking” adding “these are massive operations and industry hopes to triple its production over the next 20 years.”

Blocking Keystone XL will thwart expansion of oil sands production, according to the NRDC, but Mr. Oliver says Canada will just export its reserves elsewhere.

With files from Steven Chase and The Canadian Press

Redskins remorse?

Sports columnist Peter King refuses to use controversial name of Washington’s NFL team

By John Luciew

Penn News September 10, 2013

The Washington Redskins could have bigger problems than their 33-27 loss to Coach Chip Kelly’s no-huddle, quick-strike Philadelphia Eagles last night. Once again, outrage is brewing over the Redskins name. And now one of the nation’s most respected NFL journalists has joined the side who believes Washington’s team name is an affront to Native Americans.

None other than Peter King, the Monday Morning Quarterback, himself, is swearing off using the term “Redskins” ever again in his blanket-like coverage of the NFL. King made the announcement on his Monday Morning Quarterback website, a multi-page overview of all things NFL.

“I’ve decided to stop using the Washington team nickname. It’s a name you won’t see me use anymore. The simple reason is that for the last two or three years, I’ve been uneasy when I sat down to write about the team and had to use the nickname. In some stories I’ve tried to use it sparingly. But this year, I decided to stop entirely because it offends too many people, and I don’t want to add to the offensiveness. Some people, and some Native American organizations—such as the highly respected American Indian Movement—think the nickname is a slur. Obviously, the team feels it isn’t a slur, and there are several prominent Native American leaders who agree. But I can do my job without using it, and I will.”

And just to prove it, King pointed to a 2,400-word feature on Washington’s offensive coordinator, Kyle Shanahan, that never once mentions the team’s name.

For his part, Redskin’s owner Daniel Snyder has said repeatedly that he has no intention of ever changing his team’s name, despite protests from Native American groups and a growing legion of sports journalists, who like King, will not say or write the team name.

Snyder has emphasized the word “never” when ruling out such a name change, instructing reporters to print the word in all-caps.

Judge orders Marysville to pay Cedar Grove $143,000

A judge finds that the city failed to turn over emails requested by Cedar Grove Composting as public records.

September10, 2013

By Bill Sheets, Herald Writer

EVERETT — The city of Marysville was ordered Monday by a judge to pay more than $143,000 to Cedar Grove Composting for violations of the state public disclosure law.

The Everett composting company last year sued Marysville in Snohomish County Superior Court over the city’s withholding of emails between it and a consultant.

In an unusual move, Judge Richard T. Okrent also ruled that the city should have disclosed emails related to Cedar Grove that were sent internally at the consulting firm, Strategies 360.

Cedar Grove officials did not respond Monday to an email seeking comment.

The city of Marysville, the Tulalip Tribes and many who live in Marysville and Everett have been battling Cedar Grove for several years over allegations that the company’s Smith Island plant has been emitting offensive odors in the area.

Strategies 360 was performing public relations work for Marysville related to the issue.

The consulting firm already had been hired by the city to lobby on transportation and other issues and had been paid a flat rate of $7,500 per year for all the combined work, according to city administrator Gloria Hirashima.

Last year, Cedar Grove filed a public disclosure request with the city for all written communications with Strategies 360 related to the composting company. The city supplied most of the emails but withheld a number of them, claiming they were exempt from public disclosure because of attorney-client privilege. The emails contained discussions of legal strategy, Hirashima said.

Okrent ruled that 15 of those emails did not meet that standard. Though Marysville released the emails before Cedar Grove filed the lawsuit, the city should have released them sooner, the judge ruled.

The emails contained possible strategies and approaches, some of which the city used and some it didn’t, Hirashima said. For example, the city acted on the consultants’ suggestion to have city and Tulalip tribal leaders send letters to elected officials, she said.

The emails also revealed that the city and Strategies 360 helped residents write letters to newspapers and with other activities, such as applying for grants, according to the original complaint by Cedar Grove.

Hirashima said there’s nothing wrong with that in itself.

“We had literally hundreds of citizens asking us for help on this issue,” she said.

Mike Davis, leader of the Cedar Grove opposition group Citizens for a Smell Free Snohomish County, acknowledged he had help with letter writing but said he took the initiative.

“Any implications that we were created by the city of Marysville or that they ran the citizens group is not true,” he said. “I went to my elected officials as any citizen should. We were offered and gladly accepted help from the city. Fix the smell, I go away, it’s that simple.”

Also, Okrent ruled the city was negligent in failing to track down 19 other emails in response to Cedar Grove’s disclosure request.

Marysville also should have released internal Strategies 360 emails pertaining to Cedar Grove, the judge wrote in the ruling signed on Monday. The firm was acting as an employee of the city on the matter, he said.

“Marysville knew what Strategies was doing, paid them for those activities, was generally aware that there were documents in Strategies’ possession created during those activities, and discussed the contents of some of those documents with Strategies,” Okrent wrote.

The attorney working on the case for Marysville, Jeff Myers of Olympia, said the ruling broke new legal ground.

“I think it caught everyone by surprise that the court did what we thought was an unprecedented extension of the public records act to records the city never had,” Myers said. “Those were things the city never saw, didn’t possess and some of it was done for other clients.”

Myers said he’s specialized in public disclosure law for nearly 10 years and “it’s the first time to my knowledge it’s been done anywhere,” he said of the ruling.

Hirashima said the ruling sets an ominous precedent in terms of how the city and other government agencies must respond to disclosure requests in the future.

“This is a distraction from trying to get the (odor) issue addressed,” she said. “There are tools Cedar Grove has to inflict punishment back.”

Cedar Grove two years ago was fined $119,000 by the Puget Sound Clean Air Agency for odor violations at its plants in Everett and Maple Valley in King County.

That amount was applied toward Cedar Grove’s $200,000 contribution to a $375,000 study of odors in the Snohomish River Delta run by the Clean Air Agency.

The city of Seattle and King County, both of which send yard and food waste to Cedar Grove, put up $100,000 and $50,000, respectively. The Clean Air Agency is spending $25,000.

Bill Sheets: 425-339-3439; sheets@heraldnet.com.

Feds give final approval to owl-killing experiment

Barred OwlPhoto Source: Wikipedia — Barred Owl
Photo Source: Wikipedia

September 10, 2013 @ 9:14 am

GRANTS PASS, Oregon (AP) – Federal wildlife officials are moving ahead with an experiment to see if killing a rival owl will help save the northern spotted owl from extinction.

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service said Tuesday it gave final approval to a plan to send trained hunters into the woods to shoot barred owls.

Barred owls migrated from the East and arrived in spotted owl territory in 1959. The agency says they have since become the biggest threat to spotted owl survival.

Plans are to kill or capture barred owls in four study areas in Washington, Oregon and Northern California over the next four years.

The spotted owl forced big changes in management of national forests when environmentalists won lawsuits to protect the old growth forests where the owls live from logging.

How to Write the Great American Indian Novel

September 9, 2013

Poem By SHERMAN ALEXIE

Montana Public Radio

All of the Indians must have tragic features: tragic noses, eyes, and arms.
Their hands and fingers must be tragic when they reach for tragic food.

The hero must be a half-breed, half white and half Indian, preferably
from a horse culture. He should often weep alone. That is mandatory.

If the hero is an Indian woman, she is beautiful. She must be slender
and in love with a white man. But if she loves an Indian man

then he must be a half-breed, preferably from a horse culture.
If the Indian woman loves a white man, then he has to be so white

that we can see the blue veins running through his skin like rivers.
When the Indian woman steps out of her dress, the white man gasps

at the endless beauty of her brown skin. She should be compared to nature:
brown hills, mountains, fertile valleys, dewy grass, wind, and clear water.

If she is compared to murky water, however, then she must have a secret.
Indians always have secrets, which are carefully and slowly revealed.

Yet Indian secrets can be disclosed suddenly, like a storm.
Indian men, of course, are storms. The should destroy the lives

of any white women who choose to love them. All white women love
Indian men. That is always the case. White women feign disgust

at the savage in blue jeans and T-shirt, but secretly lust after him.
White women dream about half-breed Indian men from horse cultures.

Indian men are horses, smelling wild and gamey. When the Indian man
unbuttons his pants, the white woman should think of topsoil.

There must be one murder, one suicide, one attempted rape.
Alcohol should be consumed. Cars must be driven at high speeds.

Indians must see visions. White people can have the same visions
if they are in love with Indians. If a white person loves an Indian

then the white person is Indian by proximity. White people must carry
an Indian deep inside themselves. Those interior Indians are half-breed

and obviously from horse cultures. If the interior Indian is male
then he must be a warrior, especially if he is inside a white man.

If the interior Indian is female, then she must be a healer, especially if she is inside
a white woman. Sometimes there are complications.

An Indian man can be hidden inside a white woman. An Indian woman
can be hidden inside a white man. In these rare instances,

everybody is a half-breed struggling to learn more about his or her horse culture.
There must be redemption, of course, and sins must be forgiven.

For this, we need children. A white child and an Indian child, gender
not important, should express deep affection in a childlike way.

In the Great American Indian novel, when it is finally written,
all of the white people will be Indians and all of the Indians will be ghosts.

Read Sherman Alexie’s mini biography on the IMDB site.

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Here’s a Tip: Shut Up! Server Fired for FB Post Saying Natives Bad Tippers

ICTMN Staff

September 09, 2013

A server at Famous Dave’s in Bismarck, North Dakota, is out of a job after posting a photo on Facebook that implied Native Americans are bad tippers.

Over the weekend, Bismarck was the site of the 44th Annual United Tribes International Powwow. On Facebook, an unidentified server posted a photo of herself holding a sign that reads:

Spare change? Help I’m a server at Famous Dave’s on Pow Wow weekend! Anything helps! 5¢ 25¢! Its more than my tips

Last Real Indians publicized the unpleasant image by posting it to the site’s official Facebook page. That post (which appears to have been deleted) suggested Natives boycott the restaurant and sparked hundreds of comments from angered American Indians.

Famous Dave’s founder Dave Anderson is Choctaw and Ojibwe, and is a former Assitant Secretary for Indian Affairs in the Department of the Interior.

Both Anderson and the Bismarck restaurant’s manager, Mike Wright, posted comments about the incident on Facebook.Wright’s comment reads, in part, “When an employee decides to make an ass of him or herself they can now do it for all to see. Sadly, for reasons unkown to me, often times bitter employees also try to embarass the employers and taint the businesses where they work. Clearly a recent post by a now former employee fits this description.”

U.S. Marshals arrest accused rapist in Navajo

The Daily Times staff

09/05/2013
FARMINGTON , NM— U.S. Marshals arrested an accused rapist in the town of Navajo on Thursday.

Courtesy of San Juan County Adult Detention Center (null)

Peter Andrew Ernst, 26, was arrested on suspicion of five counts of criminal sexual penetration, assault, aggravated battery, kidnapping and failure to register as a sex offender, according to a San Juan County Sheriff’s Office news release.

Ernst allegedly raped a woman at a home in Aztec. The victim reported the rape to sheriff’s office investigators at an Aztec gas station last month.

When police learned of the attack, Ernst left the area for Navajo, about 100 miles south of Aztec.

Ernst is a convicted sex offender, and he last registered in Arizona in 2012, according to the news release.

A U.S Marshals Service fugitive apprehension team went to Navajo and arrested Ernst on Thursday.

He is being held at the San Juan County Adult Detention Center.

Child prostitution victim warns of sex trade on ships

Police, border officials ignore concerns of First Nations women, advocates say

By Jody Porter, CBC News

Sep 5, 2013

Bridget Perrier, who worked as a child prostitute in Thunder Bay, Ont., says police need to do more to keep indigenous women safe. (Jody Porter/CBC)

An Anishinabe woman who worked as a child prostitute in Thunder Bay, Ont., is speaking out after reports from an American researcher saying indigenous women are being sold on ships in Lake Superior.

The researcher, Christine Stark, said her ‘exploratory’ research includes interviews with First Nations women who say they were trafficked on ships between Thunder Bay and Duluth, Minnesota.

Bridget Perrier recalls working as a prostitute on ships in Lake Superior. She said police need to do more to keep indigenous women safe.

“I’m sure if these ships were bringing in big amounts of drugs [the police] would be on it,” the 37-year-old said. “But what about the girls that disappear?”

Native Canadian women sold on U.S. ships, researcher says

“First Nations girls are targeted and that’s my biggest concern is that there are bull’s eyes put on them and no one is doing anything,” she added.

More than a decade ago, she worked as a prostitute on about 20 different ships at Thunder Bay’s port, the first time at the age of 12, she said.

Sailors often had limited time when they were allowed off their vessels, so they’d come to the bars and pick up groups of girls to take back to their quarters, Perrier said.

“I remember going on the ship and I had a bad feeling,” she said. “And I remember the one guy taking me and showing me they had jail cells in the boat and I thought, ‘Oh God, this is it. Who is going to look for me?'”

“And then he made the comment about Lake Superior being so deep and cold that they would never find one of them,” she added. “And at that point I knew we were in trouble.”

Didn’t disclose her identity

The ship left the Thunder Bay port and ended up in Minnesota. She was able to make her way back home, but she said many others never did.

“I never disclosed that I was First Nations when I did sex work,” she said. “Because First Nations girls get paid less, and I didn’t want to get hurt.”

She dyed her hair blonde and her fair skin allowed her to pass.

Now, working as a counsellor and advocate, Perrier said sex trade workers in Thunder Bay have told her the so-called ‘ship parties’ are still going on.

But police on both sides of the border deny that. Thunder Bay police say they are unaware of any prostitution at the ports in that city. The Duluth Police Department is skeptical that it’s possible to smuggle women off ships in America.

“Ever since 9/11, our ports have been tighter and tighter,” said Duluth police Sgt. Jeremiah Graves. “I can look over the hill and see the ships out in the bay, they’re not parked at the docks like they used to be.”

Graves said he’s looking into Christine Stark’s research on sex trafficking and believes they refer to historical accounts.

The chair of indigenous governance at Ryerson University in Toronto says it’s time officials find out for sure. Pam Palmater said a full inquiry into the trafficking of indigenous women in North America is urgently needed.

The Native Women’s Association has documented the cases of 600 missing or murdered indigenous women in Canada in the past 30 years. Some of them may have disappeared on a ship into the United States. But no one knows for sure because no formal investigations have been done, Palmater said.

“The fact that you have murdered and missing women in this country and a real lack of response from the police, what kind of indirect message does that send to Canadians?” she asked.”That they’re [indigenous women] not worthy, they’re not worthy of protection.”

The federal government said it is addressing concerns about the trafficking of First Nations women. Public Safety Canada is launching an awareness campaign in partnership with the National Association of Friendship Centers later this fall.

Palmater said that’s not enough, but it’s up to non-aboriginal Canadians to create change.

“Politicians and government expect First Nations to be concerned about this and to advocate on their own behalf,” she said. “But when non-First Nations people say this is a massive injustice and we wouldn’t want this happening to our kids, politicians are more likely to listen.”

Dude rancher in Grand Canyon dispute with tribe briefly arrested

September 05, 2013

By David Schwartz

PHOENIX (Reuters) – A dude rancher in a bitter dispute with a Native American tribe over access to a Grand Canyon tourist attraction was briefly arrested after confronting crews building a road near his property, a tribal spokesman said on Thursday.

Nigel Turner, the British owner of the Grand Canyon Resort dude ranch in Arizona, was taken into custody on suspicion of one count of trespassing by a Hualapai Tribe police officer on Tuesday. He was accused of entering the site despite earlier warnings, said tribal spokesman Dave Cieslak.

The tribe is paving the road on federal land adjacent to Turner’s property to provide easy access to its Skywalk project, a glass-bottom viewing platform that juts out over the crimson-hued canyon’s West Rim and attracts upwards of 1,000 tourists a day.

Turner is a Nevada businessman and ex-British Army helicopter pilot who a decade ago bought his property which today provides visitors with the experience of living on a Western ranch. He has been in a dispute with the tribe stemming from a four-year easement to his property he granted in 2007.

The fight escalated in May when Turner began charging tourists to enter the road that runs briefly through his property and later blocked access to the road altogether.

Tribal officials then built a new stretch of road that bypasses his property, and were working to complete a bigger project to finish a paved road to the Skywalk.

Cieslak said Turner was warned by security personnel not to enter the site, but did so anyway and began yelling at workers. He was arrested by a tribal officer on scene.

He complained of chest pains while en-route to a local county jail, and was treated and released at the Kingman Regional Medical Center, Cieslak said. He was cited but not taken to jail.

“He was treated with the utmost respect and all statewide police policies and procedures were followed,” Cieslak said.

Turner disputes the tribe’s account of the incident, saying he was concerned about crews using explosives so close to where his resort guests were staying. He said he asked politely to speak to the construction foreman and was quickly handcuffed.

He said he was then placed in a small space in the back of a car without air-conditioning, and that he asked to be flown to the hospital, but was taken by ground ambulance instead.

“My own cowboys would be arrested for treating animals the way they treated me,” Turner told Reuters. “What they did to me violated my civil rights.”

There was no immediate decision on whether charges would be filed by the Mohave County Attorney’s Office.

(Editing by Cynthia Johnston and Andrew Hay)

New Ocean Forecast Could Help Predict Fish Habitat Six Months in Advance

People are now used to long-term weather forecasts that predict what the coming winter may bring. But University of Washington researchers and federal scientists have developed the first long-term forecast of conditions that matter for Pacific Northwest fisheries.

By Hannah Hickey | University of Washington News and Information

September 4, 2013

“Being able to predict future phytoplankton blooms, ocean temperatures and low-oxygen events could help fisheries managers,” said Samantha Siedlecki, a research scientist at the UW-based Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean.

“This is an experiment to produce the first seasonal prediction system for the ocean ecosystem. We are excited about the initial results, but there is more to learn and explore about this tool – not only in terms of the science, but also in terms of its application,” she said.

A school of sardines. The tool will soon produce a months-long outlook for Pacific Northwest sardine habitat.Image-Wikimedia / Alessandro Duci - See more at: http://alaska-native-news.com/alaska-native-news-at-sea/9212-new-ocean-forecast-could-help-predict-fish-habitat-six-months-in-advance.html#sthash.JjthM2LO.dpuf — A school of sardines. The tool will soon produce a months-long outlook for Pacific Northwest sardine habitat.Image-Wikimedia / Alessandro Duci

In January, when the prototype was launched, it predicted unusually low oxygen this summer off the Olympic coast. People scoffed. But when an unusual low-oxygen patch developed off the Washington coast in July, some skeptics began to take the tool more seriously. The new tool predicts that low-oxygen trend will continue, and worsen, in coming months.

“We’re taking the global climate model simulations and applying them to our coastal waters,” saidNick Bond, a UW research meteorologist. “What’s cutting edge is how the tool connects the ocean chemistry and biology.”

Bond’s research typically involves predicting ocean conditions decades in advance. But as Washington’s state climatologist he distributes quarterly forecasts of the weather. With this project he decided to combine the two, taking a seasonal approach to marine forecasts.

The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration funded the project to create the tool and publish the two initial forecasts.

“Simply knowing if things are likely to get better, or worse, or stay the same, would be really useful,” said collaborator Phil Levin, a biologist at NOAA’s Northwest Fisheries Science Center.

Early warning of negative trends, for example, could help to set quotas.

“Once you overharvest, a lot of regulations kick in,” Levin said. “By avoiding overfishing you don’t get penalized, you keep the stock healthier and you’re able to maintain fishing at a sustainable level.”

The tool is named the JISAO Seasonal Coastal Ocean Prediction of the Ecosystem, which the scientist dubbed J-SCOPE. It’s still in its testing stage. It remains to be seen whether the low-oxygen prediction was just beginner’s luck or is proof the tool can predict where strong phytoplankton blooms will end up causing low-oxygen conditions, Siedlecki said.

The tool uses global climate models that can predict elements of the weather up to nine months in advance. It feeds those results into a regional coastal ocean model developed by the UW Coastal Modeling Group that simulates the intricate subsea canyons, shelf breaks and river plumes of the Pacific Northwest coastline. Siedlecki added a new UW oxygen model that calculates where currents and chemistry promote the growth of marine plants, or phytoplankton, and where those plants will decompose and, in turn, affect oxygen levels and other properties of the ocean water.

The end product is a nine-month forecast for Washington and Oregon sea surface temperatures, oxygen at various depths, acidity, and chlorophyll, a measure of the marine plants that feed most fish. Coming this fall are sardine habitat maps. Eventually researchers would like to publish forecasts specific to other fish, such as tuna and salmon.

The researchers fine-tuned their model by comparing results for past seasons with actual measurements collected by theNorthwest Association of Networked Ocean Observing Systems, or NANOOS. The UW-based association is hosting the forecasts as a forward-looking complement to its growing archive of Pacific Northwest ocean observations.

Siedlecki’s analyses suggest the new tool is able to predict elements of the ocean ecosystem up to six months in advance.

Researchers will present the project this year to the Pacific Fishery Management Council, the regulatory body for West Coast fisheries, and will work with NANOOS to reach tribal, state, and local fisheries managers.

If the forecasts prove reliable, they could eventually be part of a new management approach that requires knowing and predicting how different parts of the ocean ecosystem interact.

“The climate predictions have gotten to the point where they have six-month predictability globally, and the physics of the regional model and observational network are at the point where we’re able to do this project,” Siedlecki said.

Source: University of Washington